Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Numerous low-level
B-class events occurred, the largest being a B4 at 2339Z from Region
1035 (N30W05). Region 1035 has grown steadily during the past 24
hours and is currently a 20 spot Dai Beta group with an area of
approximately 150 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 December).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 082 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 000/000 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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