Viewing archive of Monday, 11 January 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N29E10) produced numerous B-class flares during the past 24 hours; the largest of these was a B9 flare at 11/1356Z. Region 1040 showed continued growth in areal coverage (300 millionths) and was classified as a Cai-beta group with 25 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an insolated M-class flare from Region 1040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region around 11/0844Z. Solar wind velocity increased from around 357 km/s to a max of 542 km/s at around 11/1540Z. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) activity showed an enhancement of total field of 14 nT, and the southern component of the IMF ranged between +10 nT and -9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled levels for the next two days (12-13 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected on day three (14 January).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 089
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  007/010-005/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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