Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Todays activity
consisted of two C-class events both from Region 1035 (N30W18), the
first a C5/Sf at 0124Z and the second a C3 at 1302Z. A slow-moving,
partial-halo CME was associated with the C5 event. Region 1035 has
not shown significant growth during the past 24 hours. However,
there does appear to be a small delta magnetic configuration in the
central portion of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during the next three days (17-19 December).
(The partial halo CME discussed in Part 1A, above, is expected to
arrive on day 4 and increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled to
active levels).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 083 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1211Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1656Northern Lights long term prediction 4sun goes blank 76Space Weather Memes 571
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |