Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1033 (N19E34) a Bxo-beta , has grown in area and
sunspot number. Region 1032 (N15E07) a Bxo-beta, has shown little
change. No flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
for the next two days (20-21 November) due to a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels for the third day (22 November).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 077 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 010/010-015/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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