Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 November 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1033 (N19E34) a Bxo-beta , has grown in area and sunspot number. Region 1032 (N15E07) a Bxo-beta, has shown little change. No flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the next two days (20-21 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the third day (22 November).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 077
  Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  010/010-015/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%10%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%10%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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