Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Two regions were numbered today. Region 1032 (N17E20) and
Region 1033 (N21E47) were both magnetically classified as Beta
groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. With the emergence of Regions 1032 and 1033,
there is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24 hours. An
isolated unsettled period at mid-latitudes occurred between
18/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (19 November).
Unsettled, with isolated active conditions, are expected on day two
and three (20-21 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov ??? Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 079/080/080 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/007-010/011-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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