Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 January 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1040 (N28W30) has been stable and is classified as a Eki-beta group with 24 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 January). There is a slight chance that Region 1040 will produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the next two days (15-16 January) .On day three (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 090
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  089/087/085
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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