Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1040 (N28W11) has shown growth in areal coverage
(370 Millionths) and is now classified as a Eki-beta group with 33
spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected be at very
low to low levels for the next three days (14-16 January). There is
a chance that Region 1040 will produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (14-16
January).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 091 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 091/090/087 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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