Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 09 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W26) produced a M1/Sn event at 08/2123Z. This region has shown a slight decay today but continues to maintain its magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (10-12 February). Activity is forecast due to the recent CME activity from Region 1045. Late on 11 February into 12 February there is a slight chance for isolated periods of minor levels due to the full halo CME observed on 06 February.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M50%30%20%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 091
  Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/009-010/011-012/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%40%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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