Viewing archive of Monday, 8 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 08 2211 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17) produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. STEREO and SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated Tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional Tenflares observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045 events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at 08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare. A new region was numbered today as Region 1047 (S15E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (09-11 February). These conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 094
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  096/096/094
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/008-008/009-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm02%01%05%

All times in UTC

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