Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1040 (N29W57) has decayed, both in areal coverage
and spot number, but retained its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels. B-class flares and isolated C-class
flares are expected. There is also a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (17 January). On day
two (18 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (19
January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 084 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 084/082/082 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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