Viewing archive of Friday, 12 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity ranged from low to high. At 12/0726Z,
Region 1046 (N24E13) produced an impulsive C7.9/1n flare with an
associated 140 sfu Tenflare. Four hours later, the region produced
the largest event of the period, an impulsive M8.3/1n flare with an
associated 350 sfu Tenflare. LASCO C2 and Stereo-B imagery depicted
a potentially geoeffective, asymmetrical, full-halo CME from this
event. Later in the period, Region 1045 (N28W53) produced a M1.1/2f
at 12/1808Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. A chance of high activity
exists for the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of
unsettled conditions from 12/03-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 February), returning
to quiet on day 2 (14 February), and unsettled to active with a
chance for minor storming on day 3 (15 February). The activity
forecasted is due to CME and expected coronal hole high speed stream
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 096 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 098/098/098 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 008/010-005/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
AR 13932 12Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |