Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1045 (N22W52) is
beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046 (N23E15) intensified
during the period, producing a C1.1/sf flare at 11/1941Z, the
largest event of the period. A well defined, recurrent, southern
extension coronal hole is nearing 20E.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the
period (12-14 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions observed between 06-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (12 February). A decrease to quiet
with a slight chance for unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3 (13-14
February) is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 094 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 094/095/095 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
AR 13932 13Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |