Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N25W18) remains stable and has not produced any significant activity within the past 24 hours. The return of old Region 1040 is evident in EIT and SXI imagery. A CME was observed off the northeast limb at about 03/0500Z and was associated with a B1 long duration X-ray event between 0450-0700Z. A second CME that appears earthward directed was observed on both Stereo A and B. There are two coronal holes visible on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with only a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled with an active period from 02/2100Z-03/0000Z. Solar wind speeds were elevated throughout the period with peak velocities around 580 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (04-05 February). An increase to mostly unsettled levels is expected in the third day (06 February) in response to a high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 074
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  076/078/080
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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