Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N20E64) produced a C4 flare at 14/1204Z. Region 1046 (N24W23) produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1046 was in a gradual decay phase with decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic complexity. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares are likely. There is also a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1046 and 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the period (15 - 17 February) with a chance for minor storm levels. A CME is expected to impact the field on 15 February. A recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to disturb the field during 16 - 17 February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 089
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  086/084/084
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/012-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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