Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N20E64) produced a
C4 flare at 14/1204Z. Region 1046 (N24W23) produced an isolated
B-class flare. Region 1046 was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are likely. There is also a chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1046 and 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the period (15 -
17 February) with a chance for minor storm levels. A CME is expected
to impact the field on 15 February. A recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream is expected to disturb the field during 16 - 17
February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 089 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/012-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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