Viewing archive of Monday, 15 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N21E50) produced a
low-level C-class flare early in the period. Region 1046 (N24W36)
continued to gradually decay. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated an interplanetary shock passage at
approximately 15/1725Z. This was followed by a weak geomagnetic
sudden impulse at 15/1832Z (02 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The
shock was likely associated with the M8/CME event of 12 February.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (16 -
17 February) with a chance for active levels. Activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (18 February).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 088 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-010/010-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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