Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of a
C2 x-ray event at 1611Z from Region 1052 (S17W70), as well as
numerous B-class events. Regions 1052 and 1053 (S22W77) showed slow
growth during the past 24 hours and exhibited slightly elevated
levels of activity. An overall increasing trend was noted in the
x-ray background levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for isolated C-class events during the
next three days (05-07 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a small
increase in speed with values ranging between 440-460 km/s at the
end of the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (05-07
March).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 081 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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