Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 1060 (N24E58) was assigned today and appears to be a small bipolar region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class event during the next three days (05-07 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, there was an isolated active period at mid-latitudes from 0600-0900Z which was accompanied by storm level activity at some high latitude stations. Solar wind speed observed by the ACE spacecraft were elevated throughout the day, typically between 460-540 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with a chance for unsettled periods for the first day (05 April) and partway through the second day (06 April). An increase to mostly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected sometime late on the second day or early on the third day (07 April) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Yesterdays halo CME appears to be primarily directed south of the ecliptic plane. However, it is possible that the flank of the CME could contribute to somewhat elevated activity on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Apr 079
  Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        04 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  005/007-007/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%35%
Minor storm01%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%30%40%
Minor storm05%15%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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