Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. GOES-14 SXI imagery observed a
C5.7/sf x-ray flare at 01/0139Z. The source of this event was
located just beyond the east limb at N24. The remainder of the disk
and limb was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with C-class flares likely including a slight chance of
M-class activity, all due from the active area on the NE limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (02 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active levels, are expected on day two (03
May). A further increase in activity to unsettled to active, with
isolated minor storm periods, is expected on day three (04 May).
Isolated major storm periods at high latitudes is also possible on
day three. The expected increase in activity on 03 - 04 May is due
to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 078 Predicted 02 May-04 May 080/082/084 90 Day Mean 01 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 005/005-010/012-018/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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