Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N19E44), a
beta magnetic classification, produced several B-class flares during
the past 24 hours. The region continues to show a slight growth in
white light areal coverage and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A chance for a C-class flare and slight chance for a
M-class event is possible from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for day one (12 July). Unsettled
conditions with isolated active levels are expected for days two and
three (13-14 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 083 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 084/085/083 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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