Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1087 (N19W05) has slightly decreased in spot number and is
currently a Cso group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
solar wind monitor on the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream at 14/1900Z with solar wind speeds
increasing to 500 km/s early in the period and gradually decreasing
thereafter. Early in the period, Bt increased to 18nT while Bz
decreased to -16nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on day one (16 July) due to a coronal high speed stream. Quiet
levels are expected on days two and three (17-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 076 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 076/075/074 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1645Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1210sun goes blank 76Space Weather Memes 571AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 45
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |