Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Isolated low-level B-class
flares were detected. Region 1089 (S23E06) continued to gradually
decay and simplify. New Region 1090 (N23E58), a single-spot A-type
group, was numbered late in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (25 - 26
July). Activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to active
levels on day 3 (27 July) due to the expected arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 085 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 084/084/082 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 007/008-007/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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