Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1098 (N14E14)
produced two low-level B-class flares during the period. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet until late on day three (15 August). Unsettled
to active levels are expected late on day three due to a coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 086 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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