Viewing archive of Friday, 13 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in
the past 24 hours. New region 1099 (N17W41) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one (14 August). Unsettled to active
levels are expected on days two and three (15 -16 August) due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 084 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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