Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N18W58) produced a C4/Sf flare at 14/1005Z with an associated CME. The STEREO-A spacecraft observed a full-halo signature first visible on COR2 at 14/1109Z. A Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 406 km/s) was also observed with this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit exceeded threshold at 14/1230Z with a peak flux of 14 pfu at 14/1245Z. The event ended at 14/1410Z. The source is believed to be region 1099.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. The increase in activity is in response to a coronal hole high-speed stream on days one and two (15 - 16 August). The activity on day three (17 August) is in response to the CME observed on 14 August.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 085
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  007/008-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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