Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 18 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N17W110) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest of these was a long-duration C4 flare at 18/0548Z, with an associated Type-II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 545 km/s. SOHO C3 imagery observed a partial-halo CME at 18/0600Z. This CME is not expected to be Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an unsettled period observed at 18/0600Z. An enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at around 18/0800Z and was associated with the long-duration C4 flare at 18/0548Z. The enhancement peaked around mid-period, then gradually decreased. Todays Penticton 10.7 cm Flux value was estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (19-21 August).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 081
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  081/080/080
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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