Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 22 2236 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of occasional mid-level and upper level B-class flares. Most of
these were from Region 1089 (S23E33) although Region 1087 (N18,
rotated beyond west limb) also contributed. Activity appeared to be
on a general decreasing trend during the last few hours of the
period. Region 1089 appeared to be simplifying somewhat and showed a
slight decline in overall sunspot area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next two days (23-24 July). The
increase is expected due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 25 July.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 088 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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