Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 22 2236 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of occasional mid-level and upper level B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 1089 (S23E33) although Region 1087 (N18, rotated beyond west limb) also contributed. Activity appeared to be on a general decreasing trend during the last few hours of the period. Region 1089 appeared to be simplifying somewhat and showed a slight decline in overall sunspot area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next two days (23-24 July). The increase is expected due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 25 July.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 088
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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