Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of numerous B-class events from Region 1087 (N18W85) and Region 1089
(S24E46). The largest events were a B8 at 1437Z from 1087 and a B8
at 1851Z From Region 1089. There has been a general increase in
background solar flux levels. Region 1089 grew steadily during the
past 24 hours and is a moderate sized D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A solar sector boundary was observed
at the ACE spacecraft around 0200Z as the interplanetary magnetic
field transitioned from a negative (inward) orientation to a
positive (outward) orientation.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (22 July) and
predominantly unsettled for the second and third days (23-24 July).
The increase is expected as a response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 089 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 007/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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