Viewing archive of Friday, 27 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 27 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1100 (S20W91) produced several small B-class x-ray events before rotating off the west limb. Region 1101 (N12E34) remains magnetically stable and quiet while growing in size. A CME associated with a lifted filament was visible on SOHO LASCO leaving the southwest limb around 27/0900Z. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very low for the next 3 days (28-30 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions over the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous obit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be mostly quiet with a chance for an isolated period of unsettled to active for the next 3 days (28-30 August).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 073
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  073/073/075
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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