Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 September 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Regions 1105 (N18W36) and 1101 (N12W70) produced several B-class x-ray events during the period. The largest event, an impulsive B6 flare, occurred at 04/07Z. A filament was observed on SDO AIA 193 lifting from the north west quadrant at 04/1430Z. A limb event CME was visible in SOHO LASCO C3 shortly after with an estimated speed of 368 km/s. The same event was visible on the STEREO-A coronagraph and produced a partial halo in the southeast quadrant.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low with C-class flares likely for the next 3 days (5-7 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active conditions for the next 3 days (5-7 September) due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 082
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  084/084/082
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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