Viewing archive of Friday, 1 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 01 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1110 (N20W71) produced a long duration, B5/Sf event at 01/1001Z. Region 1110 has decreased in areal coverage and extent and is now an A-type group. Region 1109 (N21W51) has shown little change during the past 24 hours and remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1111 (N20E30) has increased in extent and is now a B-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (02-04 October).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Oct 087
  Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  087/084/081
  90 Day Mean        01 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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