Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region
1117 (N22W41).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (29 Oct). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day 2 (30 Oct) due to a weak CME observed
on 26 October. Quiet conditions are expected to return on day 3 (31
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 086 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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