Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 02 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted a single B5 x-ray event at 0851Z from Region 1109 (N21W65). Region 1109 continues to be the largest of the two spotted groups on the disk but showed decay in the trailer spots and was generally quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be generally very low for the next three days (03-05 October).There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (03-04 October). Quiet levels should also prevail on the third day (05 October) but there is a chance for some isolated unsettled intervals due to possible effects from a weak high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 085
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  082/080/080
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  000/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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