Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 September 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 18 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Both Region 1106 (S20W21) and Region 1108 (S28E49) indicated slight growth in areal coverage during the period, but still retained bi-polar magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels. A chance of C-class activity, with a slight chance of M-class activity, is possible for the next three days (19 - 21 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period was observed at high latitudes at 18/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (19 - 20 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on day three (21 September) due to a large, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Sep 082
  Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  082/082/083
  90 Day Mean        18 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Sep  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  005/005-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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