Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions 1112 (S19W15), 1113 (N17E50), and newly numbered 1115 (S28E63) each produced isolated low-level B-class flares. Regions 1113 and 1115 were both H-type spots and exhibited no significant changes. Region 1112 showed minor spot growth during the period. A slow CME (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 140 km/s) was evident in SOHO and STEREO coronagraph images - first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 at 14/1348Z. The CME had a northwestward trajectory and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (16 - 18 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. However, ACE solar wind data indicated a CME passage around 15/0300Z, likely associated with the filament eruption observed on 10 October. Solar wind changes associated with the CME passage included increased velocities (277 to 354 km/s), increased IMF Bt (peak 09 nT at 15/0919Z), and intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection -07 nT at 15/1725Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for active levels, on day 1 (16 October) as the CME passage continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 and 3 (17 - 18 October).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 082
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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