Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1112
(S18W28) produced an impulsive M2.9/1N flare at 16/1912Z. Associated
with this event were weak, discrete radio emissions ranging from
245MHz - 15,400MHz including a 140sfu Tenflare observed at 16/1916Z.
In addition, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity
of 929km/s was observed with this event. During the period, Region
1112 grew both in spot count and area and developed beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. The remainder of the disk and limb
remained unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a chance for additional M-class events
from Region 1112 all three days of the period (17 - 19 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two
(17 - 18 October). By day three (19 October), unsettled to active
levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, are
expected. The increase in activity is due to a geoeffective coronal
hole high speed stream coupled with possible glancing blow effects
from the 14 October CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 087 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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