Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1112 (S20W84) produced the lone event of the period, a C1.5/Sf at 20/1150Z. The remaining regions were quiet and unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately very low all three days of the forecast period (21 - 23 October). A chance for an isolated C-class event exists on day one (21 October) from departing Region 1112, decaying to a slight chance of C-class activity on days two and three (22 - 23 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities remained steady during the period, varying between 420 - 460 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained predominately north.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on day one (21 October). A small, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 21 October. By day two (22 October), field conditions are expected to be mostly quiet. Late on day three (23 October), a large, recurrent CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective, resulting in quiet to active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 084
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  084/083/082
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  008/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%25%
Minor storm10%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/23M8.9
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024106.6 -45.9
Last 30 days116.1 -41.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M8.9
22015M6.75
31998M3.34
42013M2.36
52013M1.97
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks