Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1126 (S32E20) produced a few small B-class flares. New Region 1127 (N25E71) rotated onto the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance of a C-class flare from Region 1126 over the next three days (17-19 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17-19 November).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 092
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm20%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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