Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1126 (S31E07) has grown is sunspot number and areal coverage but remained quiet and stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next three days (18-20 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a decrease in solar wind speed from 540km/s to 440km/s as effects of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (18-20 November).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 091
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  090/090/088
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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