Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Regions 1134 (N19W33) and 1135 (N18E56) were numbered during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days (14-16 December). There is a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours in response to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to mostly quiet conditions for days one and two (14-15 December). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (16 December) as a recurrent coronal high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 088
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  090/088/088
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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