Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. New Regions 1132
(N12W15), a Dro-Beta type, and Region 1133 (N14E58), an Hrx-Beta
type, spot groups were numbered today. Occasional B class x-ray
events were observed during the period. Region 1132 produced the
periods largest activity with a B5 class x-ray event at 24/2111Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for isolated C class events
from Region 1132 for the next three days (06-08 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07 December). Day three
(08 December) is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight
chance for isolated active conditions late in the period. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 088 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 089/089/089 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 001/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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