Viewing archive of Monday, 6 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours. Region 1132 decayed to spotless plage. Regions 1131 (N31E15) and Region 1133 (N16E43) were both quiet, unipolar, alpha type groups. A large filament erupted from the southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk beginning at approximately 1535Z. This eruption was seen in SDO imagery and by ground based observers. The associated CME was observed in the STEREO ahead COR2 imagery beginning at approximately 1909Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance for C-class x-ray events for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A sector boundary change was observed at the ACE spacecraft beginning at approximately 1750Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the first two days of the forecast period (07-08 Dec). A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective near the end of day 3 (9 December) bringing a chance for unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 089
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  089/089/087
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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