Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of a single B-class flare, a B4 at 1117Z from Region 1131 (N31W47). Regions 1131 and 1133 (N15W22) were generally quiet and stable during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the 1st day (12 December) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the 2nd and 3rd days (13-14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 087
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  088/089/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%05%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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