Viewing archive of Friday, 7 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Departing Region 1141 (N33, L=263) produced a B5 X-ray event at 07/1520Z as the region rotated around the west limb. New Region 1143 (S22E16) emerged on the disk as a D-type bi-polar group and exhibited steady growth through the period. Region 1139 (S27W74) redeveloped spots after a 6-day spotless plage interval. Region 1140 (N33W24) redeveloped spots to the north of the large H spot and was reclassified as a C-type bi-polar group. Region 1142 (S14W45) decayed to a uni-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at predominately very low levels during the forecast period (08 - 10 January). A chance for isolated C-class activity exists all three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor storm interval observed between 06/2100 - 2400Z. The increase in activity was due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocities, as observed at the ACE satellite, steadily increased throughout the period from about 450 km/s at 06/2100Z to a maximum of 627 km/s at 07/1545Z. Velocities remained near 600 km/s through the end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum southward value of -14nT at 06/2226Z and remained southward between -5 nT to -10 nT for about 6 hours. For the remainder of the period, Bz fluctuated between +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (08 - 10 January). Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible on 08 and 09 January. This activity is due to continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 086
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  086/086/084
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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