Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1150 (S22W13) decayed throughout the period. New Region 1152 (S18E11) was numbered today after producing a B2 x-ray event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days (4-6 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was very low throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with the chance for a minor storm on day 1 (4 February) due to coronal hole effects in conjunction with the anticipated arrival of the CME from 30 January. Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled on day 2 (5 February) before returning to mostly quiet on day 3 (6 February) when coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 080
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm40%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm45%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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