Viewing archive of Friday, 4 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1152 (S18W01)
produced a few B-class x-ray flares during the period. Newly
numbered Region 1153 (N1518) remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for a C-class x-ray event for
the next 3 days (5-7 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated
unsettled period between 04/03Z-04/06Z and an active period between
04/18Z and 04/21Z. A sudden impulse of 8 nT was observed at 04/0236Z
in association with a reverse shock behind the slow moving CME from
30 January. Solar wind speeds reached near 500 km/s and Bz was
sustained between -15 and -20 nT between 04/18Z and 04/21Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated
minor storm early, then mostly quiet to unsettled for the second
half of day 1 (5 February). Conditions are forecast to be
predominately quiet on days 2 and 3 (6-7 February) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 082 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 335Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 10Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750Filaments and prominences 595
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |