Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Spotless Region 1135 (N18E30) produced a C5 x-ray flare at 15/0639Z. The only spotted group on the visible solar disk is Region 1133 (N13W74). It is classified as an H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued influence from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds were averaging just above 600 km/s at the start of the forecast period and ended with speeds around 550 km/s at reporting time. The interplanetary Bz ranged from -/+ 4nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, for the next three days (16-18 December) due to the continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 087
  Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  087/086/084
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  007/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm02%01%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

All times in UTC

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