Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained very low with occasional low-level B-class flares. Region 1140 (N33W74) developed a few spots north of its main spot and was classified as a Cso-type group. It produced a B-class flare as it approached the west limb. Region 1146 (N23E33) showed little change during the period and produced a single B-class flare. Two B-class flares were observed on the southwest limb and attributed to plage Region 1142 (S17, L=212), which departed the visible disk early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (12 - 14 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (12 - 13 January). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for brief active levels on day 3 (14 January) as a recurrent coronal high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 083
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  082/080/080
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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