Viewing archive of Monday, 10 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional low-level B-class flares occurred, most of which were produced by Region 1140 (N32W61). Region 1140 showed no significant changes during the period and remained an Hsx-type spot. Region 1145 (N16E27) also showed no significant changes and remained a simply-structured Bxo-type group. Regions 1142 (S17W88) and 1144 (S16W49) both decayed to plage during the period. New Region 1146 (N23E46), a single spot Axx type, was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (11 - 13 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth was in a subsiding coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from 642 to 487 km/s during the period. IMF Bz was variable and ranged from +5 nT to -3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during the period (11 - 13 January).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 083
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  082/080/080
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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