Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Region 1140 (N32W87)
and Region 1146 (N24E19) are the only spotted regions on the visible
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13 - 15 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. An isolated
unsettled period was observed at 12/1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (13 January).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance of isolated active levels on days two and three (14 - 15
January) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 080 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/005-007/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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