Viewing archive of Monday, 31 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1150 (S20E24) showed no significant changes and remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (01-03 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (01 February). Quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected on days 2 and 3 (02-03 February), as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 081
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  005/005-008/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%30%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%35%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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