Viewing archive of Monday, 31 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1150 (S20E24) showed no significant changes and
remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (01-03
February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (01 February). Quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected on
days 2 and 3 (02-03 February), as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 081 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 005/005-008/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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